December 13, 2010

USDA lowers local grain stocks estimate

The USDA released Friday (Dec 10) neutral-to-bearish grain reserve numbers in its December Supply/Demand Report.

USDA lowered the amount of US corn and soy expected to be leftover at the start of the new marketing year of September 1, 2011 for corn and beans and June 1, 2011 for wheat.

Tim Hannagan, PFGBest.com senior grain analyst, says the numbers were not dropped enough. "I see the report neutral to bearish, as corn and wheat came in over pre-report trade guesses on ending stocks. World wheat and corn stocks are higher. The numbers were not too far off guesses. So, it was a little bit conservative of a report. No big surprises," Hannagan added.

For corn, USDA estimated the 2010-2011 US carryout at 832 million bushels versus the average trade estimate of 803 million bushels and the government's November estimate of 827 million.

For soy, the USDA 2010-2011 US carryout is pegged at 165 million bushels, compared to the average trade estimate of 167 million bushels and the USDA's previous estimate of 185 million.

The US 2010-2011 wheat carryout estimate is 858 million bushels versus the average trade estimate of 849 million bushels and the November estimate of 848 million.

On Friday (Dec 10), the USDA estimated the 2010-2011 world wheat carryover at 176 million tonnes compared to its November estimate of 172.5 million tonnes.

For corn, the 2010-2011 world carryovers is estimated at 130 million tonnes versus a November estimate of 129.2 million tonnes.

USDA estimated the 2010-2011 world soy carryovers at 60.1 million tonnes versus its November estimate of 61.41 million tonnes.