December 13, 2010

USDA raises soy export estimate to new record level

USDA raised again on Friday (Dec 10) its forecast for US soy exports, setting yet another record-level estimate for the 2010-11 marketing year, which began September 1.

The US is now forecasted to export 1.59 billion bushels of soy in 2010-11, USDA said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. That's 20 million bushels more than USDA predicted a month ago, 90 million bushels more than the US exported in 2009-10 and 311 million bushels more than in 2008-09.

A steadily growing appetite for soy in China, now the largest foreign market for US soy sales, is primarily behind the growing forecasts from USDA. China, USDA economists said recently, purchased more than 70% of the soy the US exported through October this year.

USDA raised its forecast for US soy exports by 50 million bushels in September and then raised it by another 35 million bushels in October. A month later USDA raised the US soy export forecast by 50 million bushels again and Friday (Dec 10), as part of the December forecast, USDA raised the prediction by another 20 million bushels.

China, the world's largest soy-importing country, is buying more than ever. The country is expected to import 57 million tonnes of soy in the 2010-11 marketing year - about seven million tonnes more than the previous year - and the US has less sales competition this year from Brazil and Argentina, both of which are forecast to bring in a smaller crop than last year.

US farmers are expected to produce 3.375 billion bushels of soy this year, up from 3.359 billion last year and 2.967 billion the year before.