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December 13, 2008
 
India Oilseed Weekly: Oilmeal exports escalate on weaker Rupee (week ended Dec 7, 2008)
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
 
 
Price Summary
 
Soy Indore prices again went up this week by INR1,100 per tonne and settled at INR16,760 per tonne.
 
Sunflower meal was the highest gainer of INR300 per tonne while peanut meal, soymeal 48 percent, rapeseed meal and soymeal Indore suffered losses of INR2,400; INR500; INR180 and INR145 per tonne respectively. 
 
Prices of rapeseed and sunflower increased by INR1, 250 and INR500 per tonne respectively. Peanut kernel prices dropped by INR2,625 per tonne.
 
Prices of Groundnut Extraction (GNE) 40% and GNE 45% came down at INR9,450 and INR10,100 per tonne respectively.
 
 
Market Analysis
 
Despite fall in price, oilmeal exports value zoomed by 412 percent to INR8,810 million in November against INR 1,720 million registered in October, according to Solvent Extractor's Association of India.
 
Weakening of the rupee against the dollar helped exporters reap a better value even as prices fell across the board. Rupee value against the dollar fell from 39.32 on November last year to around 50 this year.
 
Exports of oilmeals jumped to 0.648 million tonnes in November against 0.590 million tonnes in the same period last year. Between April and November, India exported 3.315 million tonnes against 2.307 million tonnes in same period of last year.
 
Soymeal exports rose to 2.375 million tonnes against 1.424 million tonnes, rapeseed meal at 0.660 million tonnes against 0.536 million tonnes and groundnut meal 27,033 tonnes from 12,275 tonnes. However, export of other oilmeals such as rice bran extraction and castor seed extraction have decreased in the first eight months of the financial year 2008-09.
 
Prices of all the oilmeals dipped from its October level. Soymeal fell 23 percent to US$278 a tonne from US$362 a tonne last year.
  
Following the Solvent Extractor Association delegations visit to Southeast Asian countries in May 2008, Vietnam has shown quantum jump in import of oil meals from India at 0.874 million tonnes against 0.756 million tons last year.
        
Acreages under most rabi crops gain
 
In a further signal of easing inflationary pressures in the economy, acreages under most rabi crops currently being planted are significantly higher compared to last year's levels.
 
This, the government hopes, would pave the way for a softening of food prices in the coming months, on top of the reductions effected to fuel prices on Friday.
 
According to the agriculture ministry, farmers have so far planted 17.370 million hectares under wheat, against the 15.427 million hectares covered during the corresponding period of last year. Higher acreages have also been reported for other grains, including corn with 0.502 million hectares, barley with 0.515 million hectares and Jowar with 4.587 million hectares.
 
Progressive sowing under rabi oilseeds and pulses, too, are higher at 8.202 million hectares and 10.9086 million hectares respectively, compared to last year's acreages of 7.405 million hectares and 9.5501 million hectares.
 
Among individual oilseeds, there has been an increase in area under rapeseed-mustard 6.229 mh against 5.532 mh, sunflower 0.884 mh against 0.778 mh, groundnut 0.341 mh against 0.328 mh and sesamum 0.064 mh against 0.055 mh along with decreases in safflower 0.256 mh against 0.273 mh and linseed 0.347 mh against 0.373 million hectares.
 
 
Market Forecast
 
Guar Seed
 
Prices will remain steady to slightly weak due to decline in arrivals and reduced export demand.
 
Soy
 
Output is likely to be low due to poor weather in cultivating regions, which may strengthen prices in future.
 
Groundnut
 
Prices are steady to weak on subdued buying interest amidst high supplies.
 
In the week ahead, oil meal and oilseed prices may remain stable with almost same status or slightly downward in comparison to current week's level.
 

The comparison rates of nine commodities like Soy/ Peanut/ Rapeseed/ Sunflower and their meals

Commodities

Prices as on Nov 29

Prices as on Dec 6

Difference

   Soy (Indore)

15, 660

         16, 760 

        1, 100

   Soy Meal 48%

13, 145

         13, 000  

           - 145  

   Soymeal Indore

13, 500  

         13, 000 

            500

   Peanut Kernal

29, 000

         26, 375

        2, 625

   Peanut Meal

12, 500

         10, 100

        2, 400

   Rapeseed

29, 000

         30, 250

           1, 250    

   Rapeseed Meal

11, 555 

         11, 375

           180

   Sunflower

28, 000

         28, 500

              500   

   Sunflower Meal 

9, 100

           9, 400

            300 

US$1 = INR48.765 (Dec 13, 2008)
 
 


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