December 13, 2004

 

 

USDA Data Mostly Neutral For Corn, Wheat, Beans

 

Traders at the Chicago Board of Trade found Friday's U.S. Department of Agriculture figures to be a yawner with no unexpected changes.

 

There's "not a lot of meat on the bone in this report; we will have to wait for the January report for something to chew on," said one CBOT floor broker.

 

U.S. 2004-05 ending stocks were raised slightly for corn and lowered slightly for wheat, but traders said both of these changes were expected. U.S. carryout for soybeans was left unchanged, which was slightly supportive as analysts had expected a slight increase.

 

CORN

 

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2004-05 were raised by 25 million bushels to 1.844 billion. The average analyst estimate had been 1.853 billion.

 

Within the U.S. corn balance sheet, the USDA cut exports by 50 million, but also raised food, seed and industrial use by 25 million.

 

World 2004-05 corn carryover was raised to 111.7 million metric tons, up from the previous estimate of 108.7 million.

 

The increase in world carryover stemmed from the higher U.S. ending stocks and a slight increase in the South African crop.

 

SOYBEANS

 

The USDA left U.S. 2004-05 soybean ending stocks unchanged at 460 million bushels. This compares to the average pre-report trade estimate that had looked for a jump to 474 million.

 

While soymeal ending stocks were also left unchanged, soyoil carryout was raised to 1.271 billion pounds. This was up from the previous USDA estimate of 1.187 billion. Still, traders also said this was mostly expected following the Nov. 24 U.S. Census Bureau crush report.

 

Soybean output in Brazil and Argentina was left unchanged, but the Chinese soybean crop was raised 500,000 tons to 18.0 million.

 

Still world soybean ending stocks were cut slightly to 60.6 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 61.4 million. This was mostly due to an increase in the world crush projection.

 

WHEAT

 

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2004-05 were cut by 15 million bushels to 553 million. This was close to the average trade estimate of 550 million.

 

The USDA raised its estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million to an even 1 billion bushels. This was slightly offset by an drop in food use by 15 million.

 

World wheat carryout for 2004-05 was raised by just 600,000 tons to 142.8 million. As expected a cut was made to the Australian wheat crop projection, while an increase was seen for Canada.

 

The USDA now estimates the Australian wheat crop at 21.5 million tons, down from the previous forecast of 22.5 million. The USDA pegged the Canadian crop at 25.9 million tons, up from the previous figure of 24.0 million.