December 12, 2013

USDA revises higher its 2014 beef exports forecast

The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecast higher beef exports, cattle prices and beef production estimates over its November predictions.

In 2014, expectations for US beef production are higher than the previous month according to the USDA's last forecast of the year.

The December forecast increases total red meat and beef production in 2014 by less than 1% each compared to the previous month's forecasts. According to the report, the increase is a result of higher expected cattle and hog carcass weights and higher cattle slaughter. The beef production forecast expects imports to remain consistent with earlier predictions.

Strong cattle prices are expected in 2014 due to demand, while shrinking supplies will make each head more valuable with expected prices next year higher in the December report than a month earlier. The USDA specifically focuses on fed cattle prices, which have remained above US$130 per hundredweight while beef prices hover above US$200.

High beef prices will weigh on consumer demand next year as per capita consumption increased from November estimates, but remains 6% lower than 2013 projections.