December 12, 2007

US 2007-08 ending wheat stocks at lowest level in 60 years
 

The US Department of Agriculture on Tuesday (December 11, 2007) lowered its forecast for 2007-08 wheat ending stocks to 280 million bushels, which would be the lowest level in 60 years, according to the USDA's monthly supply and demand report.

The new ending stocks forecast is a 32-million-bushel drop from the 312 million bushels that USDA was predicting a month ago.

Domestic food use for wheat is higher than expected, the USDA report said, and exports are forecast "25 million bushels higher on increased foreign imports and reduced supplies and exports for key competitor countries."

US food production is now expected to consume 945 million bushels of wheat in the 2007-08 marketing year, up from the November forecast of 940 million bushels. US wheat exports, according to the report, are now seen reaching 1.175 billion bushels, up from the November forecast of 1.15 billion bushels.

Farm gate prices for wheat, the USDA said, are higher than expected and it raised the average forecast by 30 cents per bushel. The new average is US$6.20 to US$6.60 per bushel, up from US$5.90 to US$6.30.

In a retreat from last month, the USDA lowered its forecast for global wheat production.

The USDA, in its November supply and demand report, raised its forecast for world wheat production by 2.83 million  tonnes to 603.3 million tonnes. For the December report, USDA lowered that forecast down to 602.31 million tonnes.

"Global wheat production for 2007-08 is lowered 1 million tonnes this month with lower projected output for Argentina, Canada and the (European Union)," the USDA said in its December report.