December 12, 2005

 

USDA lowers 2005-06 US corn export forecast

 

 

The USDA on Friday said the US will export less corn than expected in 2005-06, largely due to competition with China and other exporters.

 

The USDA also predicted US ending stocks will be higher than previously predicted.

 

The USDA, in its monthly supply and demand report, said it now expects the US to export 1.9 billion bushels of corn in 2005-06, a 100-million bushel drop from USDA's November report.

 

"Corn exports are down 100 million bushels from last month due primarily to increased corn exports by China and Ukraine," the USDA said in the report.

 

The USDA significantly increased its forecast for Chinese corn production, exports and ending stocks.

 

The USDA raised its forecast for Chinese corn production to 130 million tonnes, up 4 million tonnes from USDA's November forecast. The USDA this month doubled its November prediction for China's corn exports to 6 million tonnes in this month's report.

 

China's 2005-06 carryout will be 26.26 million tonnes, up from the forecast last month of 25.26 million tonnes.

 

Along with the decrease predicted for US corn exports, the USDA also raised its forecast for US ending stocks by 100 million bushels. That's more than market analysts were expecting, according to a survey this week by Dow Jones Newswires.

 

The new USDA 2005-06 carryout forecast is 2.419 billion bushels, up from the November forecast of 2.319 billion.

 

The USDA left its forecast for US 2005-06 corn production unchanged at 11.032 billion bushels, which would make it the second largest US crop ever behind the 11.807 billion bushels produced the previous year.