December 12, 2005

 

USDA raises 2005-06 China wheat output forecast

 

 

China is now expected to produce more and import less wheat for 2005-06, the USDA Friday in its monthly supply and demand report.

 

The larger production forecast for China, the USDA said, is a factor in its increased prediction for global wheat production.

 

China is now expected to produce 96 million tonnes of wheat for 2005-06, a 1-million tonne increase from USDA's November forecast. China's imports, the report said, are now forecast at just 2 million tonnes, down from last month's forecast of 2.5 million tonnes.

 

"Imports by China are down 0.5 million tonnes to just 2 million tonnes, well below the previous year's imports of 6.75 million tonnes," the USDA said in the report.

 

Global wheat imports are up, though, and stronger than the USDA predicted in November. The new global import forecast is 107.36 million tonnes, up from the 107.06 million tonnes predicted last month.

 

"Projected global imports are up fractionally due to larger imports by Pakistan, Brazil, South Africa and the Philippines," USDA said.

 

The forecasts for US wheat production-57.11 million tonnes-and exports-27.22 million tonnes-were left unchanged from November, though.

 

Some market analysts were expecting USDA to lower its forecast for US wheat ending stocks, but that did not happen. The carryout forecast was left unchanged at 530 million bushels.

 

The last time USDA changed its 2005-06 US carryout figure was October when it was dropped from 624 million bushels in the September report.