December 12, 2005

USDA lowers 2005-06 US soy export forecast

The USDA Friday cut its 2005-06 US soybean export forecast by 55 million bushels, largely due to competition with Brazil.

The USDA said it lowered its forecast for US soybean exports to 1.02 billion bushels, down from 1.075 billion, "as competition from South American soybean exports continues to limit US trade prospects, especially to (the EU) and China".

Consequently, USDA raised its US soybean carryout by 55 million bushels. The 2005-06 ending stocks forecast is now 405 million bushels, up from 350 million bushels predicted in November.

"US export commitments (shipped plus outstanding sales) through early December are at the lowest level since 1998," the USDA said.

Accumulated US export shipments through Nov 24 are running 23 percent behind the pace of exports at the same time last year and commitments through the same date are also running low relative to last year. Sales are running 29 percent behind year ago levels, according to USDA data.

Brazil, the USDA predicted in its December supply and demand report, will export 25 million tonnes of soybeans in 2005-06, a 1-million tonne increase from the November forecast.