December 11, 2009
Soy imports reflect changing market dynamics in Russia
Russia's poultry production has doubled over the past five years and is currently forecast to grow 10 percent next year, steadily stimulating demand for soymeal. A five percent temporary import duty on soymeal, which is set to expire at the end of this month, has strengthened demand for imported soy. Consumption of soymeal should remain strong in 2010 although abundant feed grains could limit the extent of growth.
Russia primarily buys Brazilian soy because of a preference for GM-free, and Brazil's expanding productive capacity continues to meet rising international market demand.
US soy export bids, FOB Gulf, in the first week in December averaged US$413 per tonne, a steady increase from last month. Record sales, primarily destined for China, pushed export bids higher. As of week-ending November 26, 2009, US soy sales commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totalled 17.0 million tonnes, compared to 9.2 million a year ago.
Total commitments to the world amounted to 27.8 million tonnes compared to 17.6 million the same period last year.
US soy exports are boosted 0.4 million tonnes to a record 36.5 million supported by record sales to date and demand in China.
Brazil's soy exports are down 0.2 million tonnes to 23.7 million in response to much smaller exports in November.
Argentina's soy imports are down 0.2 million tonnes to 0.3 million as the pass through program with Paraguay ended.
China's soy imports are boosted 0.5 million tonnes to 41.0 million in response to large sales and shipments from the US
India's palm oil imports are up 0.2 million tonnes to 6.6 million supported by continued strong demand.
Canada's rapeseed exports are up 0.4 million tonnes to 6.2 million due mainly to large shipments seen in the early season.
China's rapeseed imports are up 0.4 million tonnes to 1.1 million prompted by large imports from Canada occurred before the issue of black leg fungus.
