December 11, 2009

Fast US soy exports trims 2009-10 forecast

The brisk pace of soy exports has prompted the US to lower its forecast for the oilseed inventories at the end of 2009-10, although not by as much as analysts had expected.

Official statisticians also raised their forecast for US corn stocks, and global wheat stocks, by more than had been expected in their latest monthly crop supply and demand report, which was viewed as potentially poor for crop prices.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that US soy exports had set a record high in November noting that, including sales committed but not yet shipped, they had risen by almost 60% from a year before.

However, an increase of 15 million bushels to 1.34 billion bushels in the department's estimate of overall soy exports for the year to August disappointed some analysts, who had expected a bigger revision.

The USDA trimmed its forecast for year-end stocks by a corresponding 15 million bushel to 255 million bushels, higher than the 233 million bushel figure the market had forecast.

Analyst Vic Lespinasse said the report was "a little negative" for all the main crops, with forecasts for US stocks at the end of 2009-10 higher for corn and wheat too.

For corn, the USDA, noting a slower US exports, raised its year-end stocks guess by 50 million bushels to 1.675 billion bushels, twice the rise that analysts had predicted.

The forecast for year-end wheat inventories was raised by 15 million bushels to 900 million bushels - three times the level two years ago.

On a global level, the forecast for 2009-10 wheat production was raised by 2.0 million tonnes to 673.9 million tonnes, putting it within 10 million tonnes of last year's record crop.