December 11, 2009

US soy export forecast up on China sales 

The US Department of Agriculture again raised its forecast for US soy exports for the 2009-10 marketing year thanks in large part to stronger-than-expected shipments to China.

"Soy exports are increased 15 million bushels to 1.34 billion [bushels], reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks and higher projected imports by China," the USDA said Thursday in its December issue of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The new 2009-10 forecast is an increase from the 1.325 billion bushels that USDA was predicting a month ago, 1.305 billion bushels forecast in October and 1.28 billion bushels estimated in September.

"US export commitments [shipments plus outstanding sales] were record high through November, up almost 60% from a year ago," the USDA said.

Along with the increased forecast for exports, the USDA also lowered its forecast for soy ending stocks for the 2009-10 marketing year. The new carryout prediction is 255 million bushels, down from 270 million bushels predicted in November. Ending stocks are what remains after all supply and demand factors have been taken into account.

China, according to the December report, is now forecast to import a total of 41 million tonnes of soy in the 2009-10 marketing year. That estimate is up from last month's prediction of 40.5 million tonnes, the October prediction of 39.5 million tonnes and the September prediction of 38.5 million tonnes.

The new China import forecast is "just below the record 41.1 million" tonnes imported in 2008-09, the USDA said.