December 11, 2009

US oilseed output seen to increase

The total US oilseed production for 2009-10 is projected at 97.9 million tonnes, up fractionally due to a small increase in cottonseed.

Soy exports are increased 15 million bushels to 1.34 billion bushels reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks and higher projected soy imports by China.

US export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) were record high through November, up almost 60% from a year ago. With projected crush unchanged, soy ending stocks for 2009-10 are projected at 255 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from last month.

The US season-average soy price range for 2009-10 is projected at US$8.75 to US$10.25 compared with US$8.20 to US$10.20 last month. The soymeal price is projected at US$260 to US$310 per short tonne, up US$10 on the bottom of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2009-10 is seen at 428.6 million tonnes, down 0.3 million tonnes from last month, while global rapeseed production is projected at a record 59.4 million tonnes, up 1.3 million tonnes from last month with gains for Canada more than offsetting lower production for India.

India rapeseed production is lowered due to reduced harvested area. Hot, dry conditions during much of the planting season prevented area from reaching earlier expectations.

Global oilseed trade is projected at 94.4 million tonnes, up 0.7 million tonnes from last month. Increased rapeseed exports from Canada and Australia and increased soy exports from the US account for most of the change.

China soy imports are raised 0.5 million tonnes to 41 million tonnes, just below the record 41.1 million tonnes imported in 2008-09.