December 11, 2007

Brazil reduces soy crop expectations due to La Nina

In a surprise move, Brazil's Agriculture Ministry Monday (December 10, 2007) surprisingly reduced the new soycrop by more than 1 million tonnes to 58.1 million tonnes.

The Agriculture Ministry's crop supply agency Conab justified its reduced crop estimate, previously forecast at 59.3 million tonnes, citing a possible decrease in rains in January and February, caused by the La Nina weather phenomenon.

If confirmed, Brazil would harvest a smaller soy crop than last season's record 58.4 million tonnes, Conab said.

Meanwhile, the government's statistics agency IBGE forecast Brazil's new soy crop at 59.35 million tonnes, up from 59.32 million seen previously.

The difference in forecasts arises as Conab has already factored in the probable impact of La Nina in the crop which may see reduced rains during January and February, Conab's logistics director, Silvio Porto, said in a news conference in Brasilia.

The two agencies had announced earlier they were to release a joint forecast for the first time on Monday. However, their figures remained widely different.

Soybean planting started in September and has reached more than 90 percent of the expected area throughout the country.

Conab said Brazil's total corn crop was estimated at 52.3 million tonnes, up from 51.83 million tonnes in the previous forecast. In 2006/07, Brazil harvested 51.37 million tonnes of corn.