December 11, 2006

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Monday: Up 4-6 cents On e-CBOT, neutral S/D report

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are seen starting Monday's day session on firm footing, taking their cue from higher overnight prices amid the absence of any surprises in the U. S. Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report.

 

Soybean futures are called to open 4 to 6 cents higher.

 

A neutral supply and demand report placed the focus on overnight price action, with firm price action in Asian markets setting the tonnee for early price movement, analysts said.

 

The USDA left balance line items unchanged leaving the U.S. soybean carryout at 565 million bushels.

 

The USDA kept its estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop at 56 million tonnes, unchanged from the November report. Argentina production was raised to 42 million tonnes, up from 41.3 million in November.

 

According to the USDA, the higher Argentine production figure was based on increased acreage as producers respond to higher prices.

 

U.S. soyoil production, use and ending stocks were all raised despite a lack of a change in the crush as a result of a higher projected extraction rate, USDA said.

 

The cut is world soymeal ending stocks attributed to a lower beginning stocks figure is one figure that stands out in the report, and may provide some underlying support to soymeal prices, a CBOT trader said.

 

In deliveries, a total of 309 delivery notices were posted against the December soyoil future. Issuers and stoppers were widely scattered among various commission houses, with the house account at Term Commodities issuing of 150 lots. The last trade date assigned was Dec. 7. Soymeal delivery notices totaled 959 lots. Issuers and stoppers were widely scattered, with the house account at ADM Investor Services stopping 141 lots. The last trade date assigned was Dec. 8.

 

Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday reported large speculative traders were net long 45,057 combined soybean futures and options contracts as of Dec. 5, compared with net longs of 47,996 in the previous week. Speculative funds were reported net long soyoil futures and options to the tune of 62,377 lots, compared with net longs of 65,816 lots in the prior week. Large speculative traders were reported net long combined futures and options positions in soymeal by 15,412 lots, compared with net longs of 30,186 contracts last week.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled mostly higher Monday on spillover effect from strong gains in corn futures, analysts said. The benchmark May 2007 contract rose RMB8 to settle at RMB2,833 a metric tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended sharply higher on Monday largely because of short covering by traders ahead of Tuesday's data release by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. The benchmark February contract settled up MYR29 at MYR1,894 a metric tonne.