December 8, 2010

Ukraine may export four million tonnes of grain by March

Ukraine may export about four million tonnes of grain by the end of next March even if the government lengthens caps on outbound shipments, according to Ukrainian analysts.

An extension of the limits until March 31 would still allow traders to ship one million tonnes of grain a month, said Liza Malyshko, an analyst at the Kiev-based researcher. Exporters have made shipments equating to about 11% of the current quotas, she said.

The Economy Ministry on Monday (Dec 6) proposed extending the caps, scheduled to expire December 31, through 2011's first quarter. It also suggested adding an extra one million tonnes of corn and 500,000 tonnes of wheat to the current 2.7 million-ton export quota. The government imposed the curbs in October after dry weather damaged crops.

Ukraine has exported 5.3 million tonnes of grain since the current marketing year started on July 1, of which 250,000-300,000 tonnes fell under the quota, according to Malyshko. That leaves about 2.4 million tonnes to be used, she said.

The current quota comprises two million tonnes of corn, 500,000 tonnes of wheat, and 200,000 tonnes of barley.

Ukraine's grain-export potential for the current marketing year is between 14-15 million tonnes, depending on final stockpile calculations by the national statistics office later this month, Malyshko said.

Export potential in the year may be about six million tonnes for both corn and wheat, according to Ukrainian analysts. Ukraine has shipped 2.22 million tonnes of wheat and 440,000 tonnes of corn so far in the period, Malyshko said.