December 8, 2009

 

US corn harvest moves forward slowly

 

 

The US corn harvest continues to plod along, while conditions for the winter wheat crop held steady in the week ended Sunday, according to the US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress estimates.

 

The USDA said that the corn crop was 88 percent complete as of Sunday, up from 79 percent the prior week. There is no prior year-average to compare to, as the harvest is typically complete by this time of year.

 

Traders were expecting around 90percent to be harvested, although estimates varied from 86 percent to 92 percent.

 

The Illinois crop is only 85 percent complete, compared to the average of 100percent, and Wisconsin's harvest is only 77 percent complete. The biggest laggards are South Dakota, which was 73 percent complete versus the average of 98percent and North Dakota, which was only 53 percent complete versus the average of 93percent.

 

Shawn McCambridge, senior grains analyst for Prudential Bache, said the market is shifting its attention away from the crop to other fundamental factors.

 

"We're traded this slow harvest pace for quite some time," McCambridge said.

 

But he added that that sloppy weather this week could pose more problems.

 

Little harvest progress is likely this week in much of the Midwest, as rain and snow blankets region. Snow late Sunday into Monday is expected to be followed by a more significant storm Tuesday into Wednesday.

 

The weather system is "at least a little positive" for corn market prices, said Marty Foreman, analyst for Doane Advisory Services.

 

McCambridge said that high winds expected with the system raises the possibility that some corn still in the field could lodge, or fall down, which makes it more difficult to harvest.

 

At the same time, McCambridge said, freezing temperatures could firm up the ground and allow some farmers the chance to get into the fields.

 

The winter wheat crop, meanwhile, was 93 percent emerged, up from 89 percent the prior week. McCambridge noted that Illinois' crop is only 87 percent emerged, and Indiana's crop is only 95 percent emerged.

 

"These areas are expected to get some pretty decent snowfall, and that will pretty much end the season for a lot of these locations," he said.

 

Emerging before the winter sets in is important, McCambridge said, because it helps the crop establish a deeper root system that will help it weather harsh winter conditions.

 

For the crop that is already emerged, snow cover is a positive, as it helps protect from cold temperatures, analysts said.

 

The USDA reported that 63 percent of the crop was rated good-to-excellent, the same percentage as the prior week.