December 6, 2007

Australian study shows climate change may cut farm production
 

Potential changes in Australia's climate could cut farm production and productivity in the medium to long term, according to a study issued on Thursday (December 6, 2007) by the government's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, or Abare.

Analysis by Abare indicates future climate changes and associated declines in farm productivity and global economic activity might affect global output of key commodities.

Global wheat, beef, dairy and sugar production could fall by 2 percent-6 percent by 2030 and by 5 percent-11 percent by 2050, the study found.

Australian production of these commodities could slump by an estimated 9 percent-10 percent by 2030 and by 13 percent-19 percent by 2050, it found.

These changes would have significant implications for global trade in these products, with Australian exports of wheat likely to fall by 11 percent-63 percent by 2030 and by 15 percent-79 percent by 2050, it said.

"Australia is projected to be one of the most adversely affected regions from future changes in climate in terms of reductions in agricultural production and exports," said the study.

"The farm sector will need to maintain strong production growth in order to cope with the potential pressures emerging from climate change," Abare reported.

There is an urgent need for policies that encourage rather than impede adjustment in vulnerable sectors in agriculture, including already marginal farm enterprises, it said.