December 6, 2007

Australian wheat export volumes to fall in 2007-08
 

The volume of Australian wheat exports will slump this marketing year ending September 30, 2008, reflecting the impact of lower production due to drought, the government's chief commodities forecaster reported on Thursday (December 6, 2007).

Wheat exports this marketing year are forecast at 7.0 million tonnes valued at US$2.31 billion, compared with exports of 11.2 million tonnes valued at US$2.77 billion last marketing year, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said in its quarterly Australian Commodities outlook publication.

Australia is a major global exporter of wheat, mostly through majority exporter AWB Ltd. (AWB.AU).

While production will rise to 12.7 million tonnes this crop year ending March 31, 2008, from 9.8 million tonnes last crop year, both drought-affected numbers remain well below output of a revised 25.4 million tonnes in 2005-06, sharply reducing export availability, it said.

Higher export prices will moderate the impact of the lower volumes on export returns, it said.

Abare forecast the price of the indicator US hard red winter wheat, FOB US Gulf of Mexico, to average US$310/tonne this fiscal year, up from US$212/tonne last fiscal year, reflecting strong global demand and falling inventories, it said.

For this fiscal year ending June 30, 2008, Abare projects world production at 602 million tonnes, consumption at 610 million tonnes, closing inventories at 109 million tonnes and global trade at 105 million tonnes.

For last fiscal year, it estimated production at 590 million tonnes, consumption at 610 million tonnes, closing inventories at 118 million tonnes and global trade at 111 million tonnes.