December 6, 2004

 

 

Soybean Rust May Have Big Impact on US Mississippi

 

The demand for US Mississippi soybeans is strong. But an emerging crop disease, lower prices and rising freight costs may lead farmers to plant fewer acres in 2005.

 

According to Jim Quinn, a marketing specialist with the Mississippi State University Extension Service, the impact of soybean rust in the United States remains to be seen.

 

Soybean rust had surfaced in all other major soybean-growing countries except the United States until recently. It was first found in Louisiana and has since turned up in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee.

 

Soybean rust is spread by wind-borne spores that can travel more than 1,000 miles. The fungus creates reddish-brown blotches on leaves that can weaken the plants and reduce yields.

 

The disease cost Brazilian farmers about $1 billion last year in control costs and crop losses, and some Asian growers have lost up to 80 percent of their crops. In the United States, the soybean crop is an $18 billion commodity ranked second only to corn.

 

In Mississippi, farmers had a record 3.15 billion-bushel crop in 2004.

 

Quinn stated there is no doubt the rust will decrease soybean acreage as some farmers opt to plant cotton or another row crop.

 

"We don't know what kind of effect it's going to have on the farmers as to whether they're going to take a chance on a crop that they virtually planted and ignored to one that is now managed as closely as cotton," he said.

 

Quinn said soybean rust can be controlled with fungicide, but numerous applications will increase production costs.

 

Price expectations for soybeans this year failed to pan out. Estimates reached almost $10 per bushel during planting season. Prices at harvest dropped to $5.50.

 

Quinn also cited rising freight costs. Because soybean production is high globally, countries won't have to look too far for soybeans before they find a supply closer to home to avoid the freight costs, he said.

 

Overall, the agricultural forecast in Mississippi is good, said Greg Ibendahl, an assistant extension professor. He said the state has had 12 consecutive quarters of economic growth.

 

Ibendahl said Mississippi's 2004 net farm income is estimated at $1.2 billion, about the same as 2003.

 

The state's top five commodities, in order, are poultry, timber, cotton, soybeans and catfish.

 

The total 2004 value of production estimate for those crops is $5.35 billion, up 2.5 percent over 2003.

 

"Farmers are in really good financial shape," Ibendahl said.