December 5, 2006

 

Abiove puts Brazil's 2007/08 soy crush at 27.8 million tonnes

 

 

The Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) put the market year 2007/08 soy crush estimate at 27.8 million tonnes on Monday (Dec 4), compared to 28.1 million tonnes expected to be crushed for soymeal and soyoil in market year 2006/07.

 

The 27.8 million figure, to be sold in 2007 and early 2008, is from the 2006/07 soy crop Abiove currently puts at 55.2 million tonnes. That number is also lower than the 55.7 million tonnes Abiove estimated from the 2005/06 crop.

 

Although Abiove doesn't provide explanations in its crush report, the lower numbers are likely due to industry's expectation for no major growth in Brazil's soy production. However, some early estimates by private farm consulting firms have put soy production for this coming season closer to 56 million tonnes.

 

Brazil's 2006/07 soy crush will be the lowest since market year 2003/04, when the crush total was 27.7 million tonnes.

 

Industrial purchases of soybeans from February through October were put at 23.5 million tonnes compared to 27.5 million tonnes from February through October of 2005, showing an overall decline in the local market even as government subsidies have enticed farmers to sell since June.

 

October purchasing volume was 449,000 tonnes, the lowest monthly purchasing volume since 1997 when 397,000 tonnes were bought.

 

The soy crush continued to flounder in October, hitting 2.2 million tonnes compared with 2.5 million in October 2005. October's crush is the lowest in five years, when 2 million tonnes were crushed back in October 2001.

 

 

Soy export volume estimates

 

Abiove maintains its soy export estimate for this current market year, 2006/07, at 25.2 million tonnes. But the group expects exports to drop from this current crop, or market year 2007/08, to 25 million tonnes.

 

Roughly 22.5 million tonnes of soybeans have been shipped between February and October, according to Abiove. Brazil shipped 1.7 million tonnes to world markets in October compared with 1.9 million in September and 1.8 million in October 2005.

 

Soymeal export targets for market year 2007/08 are put at 11.8 million tonnes compared to 12.4 million tonnes in market year 2006-07.

 

Roughly 9.3 million tonnes of soymeal have been shipped from February through October.

 

Soyoil exports for 2007/08 are expected to declined substantially to 1.8 million tonnes compared to an estimated 2.2 million tonnes expected in market year 2005/06.

 

Soyoil exports from February through October were put at 1.8 million tonnes.

 

 

Consumption and production

 

Soymeal consumption estimates for 2007-08 were put at 9.8 million tonnes compared to 9.5 million in market year 2006-07. Soyoil consumption is expected to rise to 3.5 million tonnes in market year 2007-08 compared to 3.2 million in this current market year of 2006-07. Consumption is rising steadily in the local market for both soyoil and soymeal. Soyoil consumption is expected to rise, too, because of Brazil's biodiesel projects.

 

 

Soy stocks

 

Abiove said soy crushers have roughly 5 million tonnes of soybeans in stock as of October. Last year at this time there was 4.7 million tonnes of soybeans stored in industry warehouses.

 

Soymeal stocks are currently put at 853,000 tonnes, the lowest in three years, and soyoil stocks are put at 307,000 tonnes, the lowest since 2003 when 297,000 tonnes were stored in this interharvest period.