December 5, 2005
ASA Weekly: Check-off ensures US tops world in soy exports; China increased soybean imports in October
Check-off ensures US tops world in soy exports
The US is once again confirmed as the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, according to figures released by the United Soybean Board.
In the 2004-2005 marketing year, the US exported almost 30 million tonnes of soybeans, a further 7 million tonnes of soymeal and oil. In the previous year, bean exports were 24 million tonnes while meal exports were 5.28 million tonnes.
China remained the top export market, buying 11.8 million tonnes of US soybeans. In 2003-04 China took 8.2 million tonnes. Mexico was the no. 1 export market for US soymeal and oil.
The check-off system has affected global demands for soybeans, and according to the industry sources is now the flour of choice for tortillas in Mexico, noodles in Southeast Asia and Arabic bread in the Middle East. Soybean oil remains the no. 1 vegetable oil consumed around the globe, with a 78-percent increase in US soyoil exports last year alone. Meanwhile, the US has a 55-percent market share of total soybeans consumed for food.
The Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and India have a surging aquaculture industry. For the third year running, soybean check-off has funded feeding demonstrations promoting US soybeans as the preferred feed for fish and shrimp.
China increased soybean imports in October
China, the world's biggest importer of soybeans, increased its imports by 21 percent in October from a year earlier--the slowest pace in eight months--as over-capacity cut processed product prices, Bloomberg reports.
Quoting a release by the Customs General Administration of China, it says soybean imports raised to 1.9 million tonnes in October, taking the total for the first 10 months to 21.4 million tonnes, an increase of 38 percent on the previous year.
Stocks of soybeans, crushed to make poultry meal and cooking oil, have been increasing at Chinese ports as some plants stopped operations because of lower product prices and restructured in order to try and compete.
Outbreaks of bird flu in China have also dampened poultry meat consumption. China is the world's second-biggest poultry-meat producer. Because of rising fears about bird flu there, sales by Chinese poultry breeders dropped by at least 30 percent this month, according to the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre.
Soybean meal prices have dropped by 9.6 percent in the past three months on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Stockpiles are thought to have more than doubled to 3.5 million tonnes at the end of the 12 months ending Sep 30, according to local Chinese sources.
China has the capacity to crush more than 70 million tonnes of soybeans a year but processes less than 30 million tonnes.
Chinese demand for imported soyoil likely to hurt palm oil
China's removal of import quotas on edible oils in 2006 would not lead to a dramatic increase in Indonesian palm oil exports to China, because increasing competition from soyoil will make it difficult for Indonesia to aggressively compete for added market share, according to analysts.
"China's palm oil demand may not rise dramatically because they can get soyoil by processing imported soybean," said Derom Bangun, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association.
From January to October this year, China imported 21.42 million tonnes of soybeans, up 38.1 percent from the same period of 2004, according to the General Administration of Customs of China.
According to an official at the Institute of Market Economy affiliated to China's Development Research Centre, the country is projected to import a net 36.32 million tonnes of soybeans a year by 2020.
US scientists conclude that twin row soybeans result in higher yields
Mississippi scientists have found that twin-row soybeans result in higher yields than those in single rows. In a side-by-side comparative study of standard, 40-inch, single-row soybeans versus twin-row, two 10-inch rows (based on a 40-inch centre), conducted over this growing season, researchers determined that soybeans in twin rows produced more pods and higher yields than those in single rows.
Trey Koger, soybean agronomist at the Agricultural Research Service's Crop Genetics and Production Research Unit, said he and Dan Poston, Mississippi State University Extension soybean specialist, were not necessarily surprised at the results.
"Twin rows produced, on average, five more pods per plant. Even though that may not sound significant, it is. That adds up to more than half a million more pods an acre in the twin-row system versus the number of pods per acre in the single-row system," Koger said.
The two men believe the difference in pod production and soybean yields between the two systems is based on light interception. Since plants in the twin-row system were separated into two rows rather than one in the study, they intercepted almost twice as much light as plants in the single-row system.
In recent years, farming equipment companies have been increasingly marketing twin-row planters over the conventional, single-row planters. Koger said some equipment representatives estimate that the twin-row planter will provide as much as 2-10 percent increases in soybean yields.
Koger's study showed similar results: soybean yields totalled 5.38 tonnes/hectare in the twin-row system compared with 4.91 tonnes/hectare in the single-row system, marking an 8.5 percent increase in yields in the twin-row system.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
4,853 |
3,059 |
6,954 |
1,630 |
2,046 |
2,181 |
3,231 |
2,321 |
903 |
|
Production |
66,778 |
85,013 |
82,820 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
40,500 |
50,500 |
51,000 |
58,500 |
|
Imports |
151 |
126 |
108 |
540 |
530 |
485 |
364 |
470 |
494 |
|
Crush |
41,631 |
46,160 |
46,810 |
25,072 |
27,800 |
29,100 |
29,172 |
28,200 |
31,026 |
|
Exports |
23,946 |
30,011 |
29,257 |
6,500 |
9,800 |
10,000 |
19,571 |
21,830 |
24,750 |
|
Other |
3,146 |
5,073 |
4,296 |
1,552 |
1,795 |
1,810 |
3,031 |
2,858 |
3,021 |
|
Usage |
68,723 |
81,244 |
80,363 |
33,124 |
39,395 |
40,910 |
51,774 |
52,888 |
58,797 |
|
Carryout |
3,059 |
6,954 |
9,519 |
2,046 |
2,181 |
2,256 |
2,321 |
903 |
1,100 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
200 |
191 |
155 |
347 |
354 |
560 |
763 |
532 |
200 |
|
Production |
32,953 |
36,938 |
37,116 |
19,807 |
21,806 |
22,900 |
22,920 |
22,306 |
24,465 |
|
Domestic use |
28,590 |
30,483 |
31,116 |
700 |
850 |
950 |
8,784 |
8,950 |
9,450 |
|
Net Exports |
4,372 |
6,491 |
5,928 |
19,100 |
20,750 |
22,050 |
14,367 |
13,688 |
14,673 |
|
Usage |
32,962 |
36,974 |
37,044 |
19,800 |
21,600 |
23,000 |
23,151 |
22,638 |
24,123 |
|
Carryout |
191 |
155 |
227 |
354 |
560 |
460 |
532 |
200 |
542 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
676 |
488 |
767 |
99 |
74 |
100 |
150 |
93 |
95 |
|
Production |
7,748 |
8,781 |
8,816 |
4,513 |
5,115 |
5,354 |
5,258 |
5,220 |
5,625 |
|
Domestic use |
7,651 |
7,900 |
8,142 |
140 |
145 |
155 |
2,710 |
2,948 |
3,020 |
|
Net exports |
285 |
602 |
583 |
4,398 |
4,944 |
5,224 |
2,605 |
2,270 |
2,600 |
|
Usage |
7,936 |
8,502 |
8,725 |
4,538 |
5,089 |
5,379 |
5,315 |
5,218 |
5,620 |
|
Carryout |
488 |
767 |
858 |
74 |
100 |
75 |
93 |
95 |
100 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 21 November 2005 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Belgium |
Soybeans |
62.90 |
99.60 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.60 |
4.80 |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
11.30 |
73.80 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
5.80 |
43.30 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
292.80 |
3559.50 |
|
LW WW I |
Soymeal |
0.20 |
0.20 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
0.30 |
364.10 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
5.80 |
201.10 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
12.20 |
604.80 |
|
Morocco |
Soymeal |
4.50 |
0.00 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
9.10 |
951.70 |
|
Nicaragua |
Soymeal |
3.30 |
10.60 |
|
Morocco |
Soybeans |
31.40 |
90.90 |
|
Philippines |
Soymeal |
1.70 |
75.90 |
|
Netherlands |
Soybeans |
0.80 |
262.10 |
|
Salvador |
Soymeal |
2.70 |
8.80 |
|
Philippines |
Soybeans |
2.10 |
16.60 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
0.40 |
6.10 |
|
Portugal |
Soybeans |
25.70 |
25.70 |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soyoil |
2.50 |
0.10 |
|
Syria |
Soybeans |
33.20 |
41.40 |
|
Guatemala |
Soyoil |
0.30 |
0.00 |
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
4.20 |
413.80 |
|
Kuwait |
Soyoil |
0.10 |
0.30 |
|
Thailand |
Soybeans |
59.90 |
152.70 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
0.10 |
30.70 |
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
0.50 |
203.40 |
|
UAE |
Soyoil |
0.10 |
0.40 |
|
Venezuela |
Soybeans |
5.00 |
35.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
12.80 |
170.50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
0.10 |
25.30 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
17.70 |
42.20 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
Egypt |
Soymeal |
15.50 |
24.50 |
|
Soybeans |
3,926.00 |
7,564.70 |
370.80 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
1.30 |
22.60 |
|
Soymeal |
1,345.20 |
888.40 |
76.20 |
|
Honduras |
Soymeal |
3.70 |
28.50 |
|
Soyoil |
100.50 |
49.70 |
3.30 |
| Note: New marketing year for soybeans began September 1, 2005 | ||||||||
