December 5, 2005

Brazil's 2006-07 soy estimate remains at 57.1 million tonnes

Brazil's largest association of soybean crushers, the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove), maintained its estimates for the 2006-07 soy crop--to be sold between February 2006 and January 2007--at 57.1 million tonnes, according to a report released late Thursday. Abiove forecast the same production level in its October report.

The soybean export estimate for the 2006-07 commercial season was also unchanged over last month's report, holding steady at 24.5 million tonnes.

Soymeal production estimates rose slightly to 22.5 million tonnes, up from last month's numbers of 22.2 million tonnes.

Soymeal export estimates rose to 13 million tonnes in 2006-07, up from 12.8 million tonnes in the October report, but it is considerably down from the 13.5 million tonnes estimated to end 2005. Last year soymeal exports were 14.5 million tonnes, so the trend is for Brazil to export less soymeal, according to Abiove's projections.

Soyoil output is seen at 5.6 million tonnes next year, up from 5.5 million tonnes in October. Soyoil exports for the year are estimated fairly close to last month's totals, at 2.45 million tonnes compared to 2.4 million tonnes in October.

Soy crushing totals have been dropping since May as supply begins to tighten towards the end of the year. However, Abiove revised their year-end crushing estimate to 28.8 million tonnes, up from the previous estimate of 28.6 million. Last year, Brazil-based soy millers processed 28.9 million tonne of soy.

Brazil is the second largest soy producer, following the US.