December 4, 2007
Global poultry meat output to grow 3 percent this year
Global poultry meat production in 2007 is projected at 86.2 million tonnes or 3 percent higher than last year, according to the latest report issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
FAO said growth is expected in all regions, except in North America. Production in the United States will stagnate due to higher feed and production costs which can downsize the sector for the first time. Canada's situation will greatly depend on the outcome of the measures taken to contain its bird flu outbreak, but the country is expected to increase its output.
Production is also likely to increase in South America as Argentina and Brazil are showing the highest growth amongst producing countries over relatively favourable feed situation and competitive production systems.
Thailand's poultry production is forecast to increase at a slower pace this year, as the market was burdened by large supplies carried over from 2006. This year, despite recurring AI (avian influenza) outbreaks, China is anticipated to increase its poultry output through measures that improve feed conversion into meat. The presence of AI in Japan at the onset of 2007 had little impact on the country's poultry sector but output is expected to increase slightly.
All the other major poultry producers, namely Australia, Colombia, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation, South Africa and Turkey, are expected to increase their poultry production for the rest of the year, largely in response to improved domestic demand.
Overall output is anticipated to increase slightly in Africa on higher production in South Africa and a recovery in Egypt from AI, which had strongly depressed the sector in 2006.
Despite the resurgence of AI in parts of the European Union, prospects for poultry production in 2007 remain relatively optimistic as prices remain competitive, on consumer preference for white meat and its increased use in food preparations. The accession of Bulgaria and Romania at the start of 2007 had only minor impacts on European Union poultry sector since their combined output contributes only 4 percent, or close to 500 000 tonnes, of the EU-27 poultry production.
Trade in poultry meat is projected to rise by 1 to 2 percent to 8.2 million tonnes, sustained by increased import demand, but limited by scant export supplies in the United States. Much of the import growth is expected to originate from Asia, especially China, Singapore and Vietnam, where consumers have mostly substituted broiler meat for pork after the first outbreak of blue ear disease in China and its spread to other parts of the region. Imports by Angola and Cuba are also forecast to rise, principally sourced from United States.
Likewise, imports by Turkey are anticipated to recover from the AI-related contraction in 2006, reflecting a return of consumer confidence. By contrast, imports by Japan are set to decline, due to some AI-related concerns amongst consumers and high poultry meat stocks built up in 2006. A tightening in sanitary import requirements by the Russian Federation along with increased domestic production is also expected to result in smaller shipments to that destination.
As for exports, larger sales of chicken meat by Brazil are expected to account for most of the expansion in poultry trade. Exports from the country are now anticipated to surge by 11 percent, to 3 million tonnes, in response to strong import demand from countries in the Far East, the European Union, Venezuela and Near East countries, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Thailand's exports of poultry are set to rise strongly, as the country benefited from the recently introduced European Union import quota on salted poultry and cooked chicken meat.
By contrast, despite larger sales to China, the export forecast for the United States points to a 5 percent contraction from last year's 2.9 million tonnes reflecting growing competition from Brazil, especially on the Asian market.
