December 4, 2007

 

Kansas could lose US$945 million from FMD

 

 

Researchers from the Kansas State University says the state can lost $945 million in a possible large-scale foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in a region thick with livestock operations.

 

In a paper principally authored by Ted Schroeder, a Kansas State professor of agricultural economics, livestock and meat trade will be halted, representing a "very, very expensive endeavour."

 

Schroeder is co-author of a paper that predicts a devastating economic impact should FMD come to Kansas.

 

The paper, based on the dissertation of Kansas State agricultural economics doctoral graduate Dustin Pendell, now on the faculty at Colorado State University, was also co-authored by John Leatherman, professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State. The group's paper was recently published in a special October edition of the Journal of Agricultural & Applied Economics.

 

FMD is a highly contagious viral disease that can have devastating effects on cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle, swine, sheep, goats and deer. The US has not had a case since 1929.

 

The team of Kansas State researchers analyzed a 14-county region in southwest Kansas that has a high concentration of large cattle feeding operations as well as other livestock enterprises and beef processing plants.

 

Three scenarios were considered: one where the disease was introduced at a single cow/calf operation, one where a medium-sized feedlot (10,000-20,000 head of cattle) was initially infected and one where five large feedlots (each with more than 40,000 head of cattle) were simultaneously exposed.

 

Schroeder said the first two scenarios were used to predict what could happen if the disease were introduced accidentally, while the larger scenario shows what could happen were there an intentional release.

 

Generally, researchers found that the greater the number of animals infected in an operation, the longer an outbreak would last and the more it would likely spread -- all directly correlating to the level of economic ruin.

 

Under the small cow/calf scenario, researchers predicted that 126,000 head of livestock would have to be destroyed and that an FMD outbreak would last 29 days. In the medium-sized operation, those numbers went up to 407,000 animals and 39 days. In the scenario where five large feedlots were exposed at the same time, researchers predicted that 1.7 million head of livestock would have to be destroyed and that an outbreak would last nearly three months.

 

From smallest to largest operation, that translated into regional economic losses of US$23 million, US$140 million and US$685 million, respectively. For the state of Kansas as a whole, those numbers climb to US$36 million, US$199 million and US$945 million.

 

Leatherman estimated the impacts of FMD statewide for this study would go way beyond producers.

 

He said the study tells "the overall stake of the region and state has in preventing such an occurrence¡­it isn't just farmers, ranchers, feedlots and packers who would suffer; it's all of us, in some measure."