December 4, 2007
CBOT Soy Review on Monday: End mixed; supported by late position evening
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended narrowly mixed Monday, managing to claw their way back from early losses on end-of-day position evening.
January soybeans settled 1 1/4 cents lower at US$10.78 3/4 and March soybeans ended unchanged at US$10.97 1/2. January soymeal settled US$0.20 lower at US$292.80 per short tonne. January soyoil finished 30 points lower at 45.80 cents per pound.
The market was on the defensive for most the day, but managed to gain its footing in late dealings, with a lack of follow-through selling at the lows and lingering concerns surrounding South American crop weather enticing traders to cover some earlier positions, analysts said.
Spillover pressure from soyoil and crude oil futures, coupled with talk of China's aggressive buying that buoyed futures in recent weeks was slowing down, managed to attract selling pressure, said Jack Scoville, analyst with Price Futures Group in Chicago.
Overall activity was subdued, with an absence of any significant fresh fundamental news providing little directive for prices, analysts added. However, talk of an El Nino year, with the potential for hot, dusty conditions in southern Brazil in February and March remains an underpinning theme, Scoville added.
The DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast said central Brazil - specifically, Mato Grosso province, the top soybean producer in the nation - has showers and thunderstorms in store almost every day this week. In southern Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil's third-largest soybean-producing province - may receive rain of up to 1.5 inches by Tuesday. Temperatures were in the low to mid 90s Fahrenheit during the past weekend, so rain will be important to bring a renewed round of soil moisture to soybeans, Meteorlogix said.
The central soybean areas of Argentina are bordering on dry-weather problems, Meteorlogix reports. For this week, rains of up to 0.75 inch are expected on Tuesday. This moisture would be very welcome; however, the outlook is uncertain due to the influence of the La Nina cool-temperature pattern in the eastern Pacific Ocean off the South American coast, Meteorlogix forecasts.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported 22.564 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export in the week ended Nov. 29. The figure is down 32% from the 33.173 million reported in the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires projected the inspections to fall within a range of 30 million to 40 million. Accumulated soy inspections total 305.798 million bushels, down 18.9% from the 377.155 million bushels reported at the same time last year.
Meanwhile, Chinese companies booked eight to 10 soybean import cargoes in the international market in the week ended Nov. 30, down from nine to 11 cargoes in the preceding week, a report by Shanghai JCI said late Friday.
In pit trades, buyers and sellers are scattered among various commission houses, with speculative fund selling estimated at 2,000 lots.
SOY PRODUCTS
Soy product futures ended mixed, with soyoil stumbling lower. Soyoil futures settled down, extending their correction from contract highs on a lack of fresh news and weakness in crude oil futures for most of the day, analysts said. However, the ability of active contracts to hold underlying support on technical charts and a bounce in soybeans and outside markets allowed soyoil to trim losses down the stretch, traders added.
Soymeal futures ended mixed, recovering from earlier declines on late-day position squaring and spillover from a bounce off session lows in soybeans, analysts said.
January oil share ended at 43.89% and the January crush ended at 69 1/4 cents.
In soymeal trades, Fimat bought 300 December and Tenco sold 300 March. Speculative fund selling is estimated at 1,000 lots.
In soyoil trades, Bunge Chicago and Citigroup each bought 300 January, and Iowa Grain bought 400 January. Sellers were scattered among various commission houses. Speculative fund selling was estimated at 3,000 lots.
