December 04, 2003

 

 

Global Demand For Beef, Lamb Expected To Remain Bullish Into 2004
 

Global demand for beef and lamb is expected to remain strong well into next year.

 

But what troubles farmers are whether high prices are able to outlast the high dollar.

 

The United States market where they hit 10-year highs last month is driving beef prices.

 

The impact of the BSE scare in Canada was still being felt there, said Meat and Wool Innovation executive director Rob Davison.

 

While exports of Canadian beef under 30 months of age had resumed, live cattle exports had not and were not likely to until about the middle of next year. That was keeping supply tight at time when US consumer demand for beef was starting to rise again.

 

"There's more eating out," he said.

 

From a New Zealand perspective US prices tended to have the strongest influence on global returns, he said.

 

Lamb prices also remain strong, driven by improved processing and marketing by exporters.

 

New Zealand lamb commands a premium in Britain and with export volumes down following a tough northern spring there is no reason to assume that they will fall in the near future.

 

"The exchange rate's taken a bit of the gloss off but we're still looking at lamb exports eclipsing the $2 billion mark again this year," Davison said.

 

Even venison prices - at historic lows since a boom and bust season in 2001 - showed signs of life this month, recording the biggest rise of any individual commodity.

 

But despite the 10.8% increase in November, venison prices remain 60% below their peak in July 2001.

 

There was still a lot of confidence in the meat industry, Davison said.

 

However weakening of the US dollar, which will pose as a major problem, was out of NZ's control, he said.