December 3, 2009

 

Upward revisions expected to most Canadian crop estimates

 

 

Canada's grain and oilseed crops are likely larger than originally thought, which will prompt Statistics Canada to raise its estimates this week, market participants say.

 

Statistics Canada is scheduled to release revised 2009-10 crop production estimates Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST.

 

"My guess is that all the crop numbers will continue to rise," said Ken Ball, a broker with Union Securities in Winnipeg, "but the magnitude will be the hard part."

 

A delayed harvest meant that western Canadian farmers hadn't made much harvest progress when the previous StatsCan survey was conducted in September. Once the harvest actually started rolling later in the fall, yield results were generally higher than originally thought.

 

"Depending on the crop, I would probably tack on another 100,000 to 700,000 tonnes," said Mike Jubinville of advisory service ProFarmer Canada. "I don't expect any crop to stay the same, or go lower," he added.

 

Trade estimates for the size of the canola crop ranged from 10.50 million to 11.80 million tonnes. Previously, StatsCan estimated the crop at 10.27 million tonnes.

 

Last year, Canada produced 12.64 million tonnes of canola.

 

"Farmers were telling us that they were surprised at how well the canola did, given the fact that the bulk of the rains came after July 1," said Jerry Klassen, an independent market analyst and grain broker.

 

Canadian all-wheat production was forecast to come in at 24.90 million to 25.50 million tonnes. StatsCan's previous estimate was 24.58 million. Estimates for the durum portion of that total were generally in the 5.00-to-5.50-million-tonne range.

 

Last year, farmers produced 28.611 million tonnes of wheat.

 

Trade estimates for the size of the barley crop ranged from 9.16 million tonnes, unchanged from StatsCan's last report, to 9.60 million tonnes.

 

Last year, Canadian barley production was 11.78 million tonnes.

 

Market participants estimated oats production could be 100,000 to as much as 500,000 tonnes above StatsCan's previous estimate of 2.90 million tonnes.

 

Last year, oats production reached 4.272 million tonnes.

 

Flaxseed was expected to see only small revisions, with trade guesses ranging from unchanged to 50,000 tonnes above StatsCan's last forecast of 964,000 tonnes.

 

Last year, flaxseed output was 861,000 tonnes.