December 1, 2009
Argentine 2009-10 soy output seen at 52 million tonnes
Post maintains its 2009-10 soy production forecast at 52 million tonnes on a planted area of 18.5 million hectares. The 2008-09 soy crush estimate has been lowered to 31 million tonnes. 2007-08 soy crush is estimated at 31.65 million tonnes and exports for that crop year are estimated at 11.8 million tonnes. Post lowers its 2009-10 sunflower forecast to 2.6 million tonnes due to a significant expected drop in planted area as a result of low prices and dry conditions during the planting window. Sunflower planted area is lowered to 1.6 million hectares. The 2007-08 sunflower crush estimate is increased to 4.2 million tonnes based on revised data. Post forecasts peanut planted area to drop to 200,000 hectares, generating a production of 500,000 tonnes, due to lower prices and dry conditions in the main peanut growing region, according to a US Department of Agriculture attache report posted Monday on the Foreign Agricultural Services Web site.
Around half of Argentina's 2009-10 soy crop is now planted. Recent rains have increased planting intentions; however they have hampered planting activity in some areas. It is expected that the pace of planting will increase next week as soil conditions continue to improve. Post maintains its 2009-10 soy planted area estimate at 18.5 million hectares - an increase of 7.5 percent from the previous crop year. Planted area could very likely be revised upward in the months to come, possibly reaching 18.8 million hectares, depending on the final outcome of area planted with corn and sunflowers.
The 2009-10 soy crop will likely have much improved yields over last year, which was severely impacted by a major drought. However, some contacts indicate that despite the appearance of good rains across much of the growing area since mid-November, soil moisture in the province of Cordoba is insufficient. Some contacts indicate that yields will be lower than previously forecast due to the lingering drought in Cordoba. Post does not expect Argentina's overall yield to surpass 2.8 tonnes per hectare. Post tentatively forecasts 2009-10 soy production to reach 52 million tonnes. Post maintains its 2007-08 soy crush and export numbers based on current data. Crush is estimated at 31.65 million tonnes and exports for that crop year have are estimated at 11.8 million tonnes.
Post lowers its 2009-10 sunflower planted area forecast to 1.6 million hectares - a drop of 12 percent from the previous year. Currently, around 70 percent of the expected area has been planted.
Due to low price margins, along with some moisture concerns during the earlier part of Argentina's optimal planting window for sunflowers, contacts indicate that this past month has resulted in a significant lowering of planting expectations for this crop year. Most of the reduced area is expected to occur in southwest Buenos Aires and southern La Pampa, northwest Buenos Aires and northern La Pampa, southeast Buenos Aires, and southern Cordoba and San Luis. Contacts indicate that the optimal planting window is running out, generating fears that the previously anticipated area will not be possible. Post lowers its sunflower production forecast to reach 2.6 million tonnes for the 2009-10 crop, due to the expected decrease in area. Post increases the 2007-08 crush output to 4.2 million tonnes, and lowers ending stocks for that crop year, based on revised data.
