December 01, 2003

Australia Sheep Flock Fell 7.8 Million in 2002/03 Drought; Lowest Flock Since 1947
  

Australia's sheep flock fell 7.8 million, or 7.3%, during the 2002/03 drought, according to preliminary estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released last week.  However, the ABS Agricultural Survey has not yielded a realistic first estimate of the impact of the drought on the cattle herd. 

The ABS estimates the national sheep flock at 98.4 million as at 30 June 2003, the lowest flock since the last very severe drought in 1947.  As expected, the big falls in sheep and lamb numbers were in those states most affected by the drought, New South Wales (down 4.3 million or 11.3%), Queensland (down 2.3 million or 34%), Victoria (down 1.1 million or 5.2%) and Tasmania (down 330,000 or 10%).  The shift from wool sheep to cattle in Queensland has left its flock at only 4.43 million, down almost 60% in four years and the lowest since records began in 1885. 

The numbers of ewes mated in the 2002/03 season was down 4.7%, to an estimated 43.7 million, and 7% below two years ago.  Lambing percentages also dropped from 82.3% to 78.3%, consequently lambs marked fell 9% to an estimated 34.2 million. 

The ABS estimate that the national herd was 27.2 million cattle as at 30 June 2003, down only 650,000 or 2.4%.  However, this is not realistic, given the additional 811,000 cattle and calves turned off (for slaughter or live export) during the year (ABS estimates) and likely additional impact of the drought on animal births and deaths.  The ABS number implies an increase in net additions to the herd (calves branded less cattle and calf deaths) during the severe drought.