November 30, 2006

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: Up 5-7 cents; following overnight e-CBOT theme

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are seen starting Thursday's day session higher, in tune with firm overnight prices, with strength from higher outside markets lending support.

 

Soybean futures are called to open 5 to 7 cents higher.

 

In e-CBOT trade, January soybeans were 6 cents higher at US$6.88 1/4 and March was 5 3/4 cents higher at US$7.01 3/4 per bushel.

 

The market is poised to take its cue from higher price moves in outside markets, with strength in energy, metals and higher calls in neighboring grains expected to influence soybean direction, analysts said.

 

The markets are in a technical and fundamental uptrend and with outside support and solid underlying demand, futures continue to find buying interest beneath prices, analysts added.

 

A technical analyst said the next upside price objective is to close January futures above major psychological resistance at US$7.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective is closing prices below solid support at US$6.50.

 

First resistance for January soybeans is seen at Wednesday's high of US$6.85 and then at US$6.89. First support is seen at US$6.80 and then at Wednesday's low of US$6.76.

 

Soyoil and soymeal futures are seen starting firm based on overnight action, but higher-than-expected deliveries and soyoil stocks in the crush report may limit upside moves, a CBOT floor analyst said.

 

The Census Bureau put the October crush at 161.7 million bushels, on par with the average of estimates from a Dow Jones survey of analysts. Soyoil stocks were put at 3.421 billion pounds compared to the average estimate of 2.960 billion pounds. Soymeal stocks were 388,360 short tonnes, well above the analyst estimate of 344,000.

 

In deliveries, 3,823 delivery notices were posted against the December soyoil futures. The house account at ADM Investor Services issued 2,000 lots and a customer account at RJ O'Brien issued 1,475 lots. Stoppers were widely scattered among various commission houses. The last trade date assigned was Nov. 29. Soymeal delivery notices totaled 1,387 lots, with the house account at Bunge Chicago the principle issuer of 1,164 lots. Stoppers were widely scattered. The last trade date assigned was Nov. 21.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said net weekly export sales for soybeans were 789,400 metric tonnes. Trade estimates called for commitments in the 400,000- to 800,000- tonne range. The biggest buyer was China, buying 350,900 tonnes.

 

Soymeal sales were 214,200 tonnes. Analysts' estimates called for commitments in a range of 75,000 to 175,000 tonnes. Soyoil 2006-07 sales were 31,500 tonnes, while the trade guess was zero to 45,000 tonnes.

 

Rotterdam soybeans were mostly lower and soymeal was mixed. European vegoils were flat to higher.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled mostly down Thursday, pressured by Wednesday's losses in soy futures on CBOT and a lack of fresh buying interest, analysts said. The benchmark May 2007 contract settled RMB9 lower at RMB2,911 a metric tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended sharply higher Thursday, boosted by firm soyoil prices and bullish market sentiment. The benchmark February contract ended up MYR51 at MYR1,940 a metric tonne.