November 30, 2005

USDA: Record 2005 yield contributes to an all-time high for US soybean supply

In the USDA's November Crop Production report, 2005 US soybean output was forecast 76 million bushels higher to 3,043 million. Yields in 2005 are anticipated to be at a record-high 42.7 bushels per acre, exceeding the previous forecast of 41.6 bushels and last year's former record of 42.2 bushels.

The forecast of 2005-06 soybean exports was lowered by 40 million bushels this month to 1,075 million. Despite a forecast increase for the 2005-06 soybean crush to 1,720 million bushels, ending stocks are seen at 30 million bushels, 90 million higher than the previous forecast.

USDA lowered its 2005-06 estimate of Brazil soybean area to 21.5 million hectares, down from the 22 million previously and 22.8 million in 2004-05. The area reduction trims the forecast of the country's soybean production from 60 million to 58.5 million metric tons. If realized, the forecast expansion of soybean exports from Brazil to 24 million tons and could account for nearly all of the expected 2005-06 increase for global soybean exports.

Global coarse grains production in 2005-06 is projected to reach 946 million tons, up over 4 million this month, but the increase is driven by the United States, with foreign production forecast down slightly this month. Foreign corn production is down nearly 1 million tons to 392 million.

World coarse grains trade in 2004-05 (October-September trade year) is estimated at 102.1 million tons, up 1.3 milllion this month as more trade data was published. Higher-than-expected shipments were reported for the United States, EU-25, China, and Russia.

For the full USDA report, click here.