November 30, 2005

Australian government estimates for wheat output vary widely

Wide differences have emerged in Australian government estimates of old crop wheat production.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated Wednesday that output from the old wheat crop reached 22.6 million tonnes, coming from 13.8 million hectares.

On Tuesday, the government's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, estimated old crop output at 20.4 million tonnes, coming from 12.0 million hectares.

After annual domestic demand of about 5.5 million tonnes was met, the balance of local output was available for sale overseas through export monopoly operator AWB Ltd. (AWB.AU), which estimated old crop output at almost 21 million tonnes.

Agencies typically explain the difference in output estimates by reference to different survey and sampling methods.

Amelia Duck, a crop analyst at Abare, said the agency does not know why the difference for old crop production estimates is so large.

"We'll have a look at that and see what we're going to do about it," Duck said in a brief interview.