November 29, 2004

China Lowers Soybean Import Forecast to 19 Million MT

China has lowered its forecast for imports of the oilseed to 19 million metric tons for the year ending Sept. 30, 2005, following a record harvest this year, according to the government. China is the world's biggest buyer of soybeans

China National Grain & Oils Information Center, a state grain administrate affiliate, stated in a report that China's soybean imports were previously forecast to rise to 22 million tons. The current projection would represent a 12 percent rise from 17 million tons in the year ended Sept. 30.

Imports, mainly from the US, Brazil and Argentina, account for about half of China's soybean demand. China probably produced a record 18 million tons of soybeans in 2004, the center said on Nov. 24 following the end of harvesting this month. A bigger harvest and lower import demand may contribute to the 30 percent drop in soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade this year.

China is likely to produce 4.9 million tons of soybean oil in the year ending Sept. 2005, compared with an estimated 4.4 million tons in the previous year, today's report showed. The country's soybean oil 2004-2005 consumption is expected to be 7.7 million tons.

Soymeal production may increase from 20 million tons a year earlier to 22 million tons in the current year. China's demand for soymeal, used in livestock feed, may record 22 million tons for the year ending September 2005, the report said.

Chinese farmers may also harvest a record 12.5 million tons of rapeseed this year, compared with 12.8 million tons predicted earlier, the center said.