November 28, 2011
The head of the Russian Grain Union, Arkady Zlochevsky said that Russia will not be able to export 25 million tonnes of grain during the July 2011-June 2012 crop year.
The country's export potential is about 30 million tonnes. However, the government plans to restrict export if it reaches 24-25million tonnes, Zlochevsky added. He added that to reach 25 million by the end of the crop year, Russia needs to export 18 million tonnes before the New Year, which is unlikely.
According to his estimates, Russian agribusinesses will export 2.5 million tonnes of grain in November and 1.8-2 million tonnes in December. Exports may total 17 million tonnes by the end of the year.
In early 2012, export activity will likely fall and will not revive until mid-March. However, by that time, Australia may begin massive supplies because it expects a record harvest next year. Ukraine and Kazakhstan will continue grain exports too.