November 28, 2011
IGC raises Australian wheat export estimate to record level
Last Friday (Nov 25), the International Grains Council projected a higher forecast of Australia's wheat exports this marketing year by 3% to a record 20 million tonnes on large inventories amid lower output than last year's record crop.
Australia's wheat exports in the year that began October 1 may equal Russia's, making it the world's second-largest exporter after the US, the IGC said.
output will likely total 26.2 million tonnes, 6% lower than last year's estimate of 27.9 million tonnes, it said after revising upward its 2010-11 output estimate by 6%, citing exceptionally high yields last year.
Despite an estimated 5% rise in area under wheat, to 14.1 million hectares, Australia's wheat production is expected to fall, as yields are unlikely to match last year's, it said.
Due to a second successive year of production in excess of 25 million tonnes, Australia's inventories will remain large.
The country's wheat stocks on October 1 were estimated at a multiyear high of nine million tonnes, up 55% on year, equivalent to almost a third of the country's output, and will likely be around 8.3 million tonnes next October 1, it said.
The IGC also revised upward its forecast for Ukraine's 2011-12 corn exports, by 4.4%, to 9.4 million tonnes, which would be a huge jump compared with its five million tonnes of exports in 2010-11. It revised upward its forecast for Ukraine's corn output by one million tonnes to 19 million tonnes, a 65% rise.
A sharp rise in output and costlier, limited supply from the US, the top exporter, has prompted even East Asian buyers to turn to Ukraine to cover requirements, a rare development.