November 27, 2009

 

Argentina wheat's 2009-10 forecast cut 3.2 percent to 7.5 million tonnes

 

 

The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange trimmed its forecast for the 2009-10 wheat crop to 7.5 million tonnes Thursday, 3.2 percent less than last week's estimate.

 

Recent showers are slowing the harvest and came too late to help drought-stricken crops in the southeast of Buenos Aires and in La Pampa provinces, the exchange said in its weekly crop report Thursday. To date, 11 percent of the crop has been harvested.

 

The Agriculture Ministry is predicting an even smaller crop of just 7 million tonnes. Planted area is down 35 percent on the year at 3.1 million hectares - the smallest area ever recorded, according to the ministry.

 

The exchange also trimmed its forecast for sunflower seed area by 4.7 percent to 1.42 million hectares due to low prices and dry weather in parts of Cordoba and San Luis provinces. That will likely lead farmers to shift some fields to soy, the exchange said. As of Thursday, 76 percent of the crop had been seeded.

 

The Agriculture Ministry forecasts sunflower seed area at 1.79 million hectares, down 8.5 percent on the year.

 

The exchange left its soy forecast of 19 million hectares unchanged. To date, half the estimated area has been planted, but recent showers are slowing the pace, the exchange said.

 

On Friday, the Agriculture Ministry released its first crop forecasts since February, pegging Argentina's 2009-10 soy area at a record 18.5 million hectares.

 

The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts soy production of 47 million tonnes, while the US Department of Agriculture expects 53 million tonnes.

 

Corn planting was slowed by scattered showers over the last week, but more is needed for farmers to plant all the estimated area, the exchange said.

 

The exchange pegs commercial corn area at 1.875 million hectares, with 72 percent planted to date.

 

The Agriculture Ministry forecasts total corn area of 3 million hectares, down 12 percent on the year.

 

Neither the ministry nor the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange has estimated production yet, but the Rosario Grain Exchange sees total corn output of 13 million tonnes.