November 26, 2010

 

New estimate for Argentinean soy yield at 49.5 million tonnes

Argentina's 2010/11 soy output is estimated at 49.5 million tonnes, below other estimates for the season as concern grows over the La Nina weather irregularity, the Rosario grains exchange said Thursday (Nov 25).

 

Argentina is the No. 3 global exporter of soy and the top supplier of soymeal and soyoil. The exchange said a record 18.7 million hectares will be dedicated to the crop, inching up from the 2009/10 season.

 

"We're looking at a record soy area again, but despite this, production is expected to be lower this season because there's more late-seeded soy, which is planted after wheat and therefore has a lower yield," said Cristian Russo, an analyst at the grains exchange.

 

The lower soy output estimate also has to do with the weather formation known as La Nina, which is causing concerns about the South American country's upcoming growing season for corn and soy.

 

Weather specialists say dryness from the weather phenomenon could drag on and yields could eventually be hit.

 

"Last year was really good and broke records in many areas but this year we're starting to feel the effects of La Nina. We're not getting rain in these areas and this is delaying sowing," Russo said about the country's Rosario soy belt.

 

The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated last season's soy output at 54.5 million tonnes.

 

In its first forecast for this season's production, the exchange also estimated 2010/11 commercial-use corn output at between 21 million and 22 million tonnes. Argentina's government also includes feed-use corn in its estimates.

 

"It's considerably above last year's because favourable prices encouraged farmers to plant more corn," Russo said, adding that corn output is expected to be slightly below last season's 22.4 million tonnes due to La Nina.

 

Overall, the exchange said the corn crop enjoyed very good moisture conditions during planting.

 

The USDA sees Argentina's 2010/11 soy harvest totalling 52 million tonnes, below last season's 54.50 million tonnes. The USDA sees the country's corn output this season at 25 million tonnes and wheat at 13.5 million tonnes.

 

The Rosario exchange held its estimate for wheat at between 10 million and 11.5 million tonnes this season.