November 26, 2004

 

 

Brazil 2004-05 Soy Crop Seen 28% Up on Year at 63.09 Million MT

 

Brazil's 2004-05 soybean crop (October-September) will total 63.09 million metric tons, 28% higher than the 49.20 million tons produced last year, according to the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, on Thursday.

 

The first estimate for the current crop detected a big jump in production in Rio Grande do Sul, where output will be 68% larger than the drought- and Asian-rust-affected previous crop.

 

Output is expected to rise 68% in Mato Grosso, Brazil's No. 1 soy state, IBGE said.

 

The IBGE figure is lower than the US Department of Agriculture estimate of 64.5 million tons but considerably larger than the 60.3 million tons forecast by the Agriculture Ministry in October.

 

Planted area in 2004-05 is estimated at 22.70 million hectares, 5.7% higher than the 21.47 million hectares harvested last year.

 

IBGE said farmers chose to plant more soybeans this season because corn prices were so low and it was easier to sell soybeans.

 

In contrast to jumping soybean output, summer corn production is expected to rise just 5% to 32.63 million tons from 31.09 million tons last year.

 

Summer-crop corn planted area is actually seen falling 0.4% to 9.05 million hectares this year but average yields are seen rising 5.3% to 2,779 kg per hectare as productivity recovers from a drought-hit 2004 crop.

 

Brazil's grain, oilseed and cereal crop is expected to total 134.0 million tons this season, up from 119.3 million tons last year.

 

Winter crop estimates for 2004 were lowered because of pest and disease problems.

 

The wheat crop estimate for the 2003-04 season was reduced to 5.96 million tons from 6.01 million in October. It is also lower than the 6.03 million tons turned out the year before.

 

Winter crop corn production is forecast at 10.78 million tons, down from 10.82 million tons predicted in October and much lower than the 13.30 million tons produced last year.