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November 24, 2016

Vietnam shrimp prices trend up against anti-dumping announcement

An eFeedLink Exclusive
 
 
Price summary
 
Shrimp prices trended up in October.
 

Prices of giant tiger prawn in Ca Mau  (Expressed in VND1,000/kg)

Category (pcs/kg)

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

20

275

278

278

281

30

210

215

215

217

40

116

119

119

121

 

Prices of whiteleg shrimp in Ca Mau  (expressed in VND1,000/kg)

Category (pcs/kg)

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

100

81

82

85

86

80

89

90

92

94

* VND1,000 = US$0.045 as of October
Source: Vasep (Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporter & Producer) 

 

Market analysis

Although recent US Department of Commerce (DOC) announcements signalled disadvantages for Vietnam's shrimp exports, in reality the shrimp market in the Mekong River Delta (MRD) region has yet to suffer any significant impact, with some prices instead trending up slightly due to limited supplies. Local demand increased due to exporters increasing purchases for export orders at the end of 2016.

In Ca Mau, price of giant tiger prawn of size 30 pcs per kilogram reached VND217,000 (US$9.64), up VND7,000 (US$0.31) from the first week of October; the price for size 40 pcs per kilogram reached VND121,000 (US$5.37), an increase of VND5,000 (US$0.22).

As of end September 2016, shrimp export value reached nearly US$2.25 billion, an increase of 5.6% compared with the same period of 2015. Of which, whiteleg shrimp accounted for 61.3% of the total shrimp exports and increased 11.2% compared to the same period of 2015. Shrimp exports sustained their growth momentum thanks to continued demand from some major export markets such as the US, EU, China, Hong Kong and South Korea.

According to VASEP, Vietnam shrimp exports to the US -- the largest export market for Vietnam shrimp -- had good growth momentum since the beginning of 2016. For August 2016, shrimp exports to the US increased 17% to hit US$70.5 million, and it was estimated that exports for the first eight months of 2016 reached US$435.3 million, an increase of 16.5% over the same period last year. However, the recent DOC announcement of the final anti-dumping tariffs (CBPG) in the administrative review POR10 were much higher than the preliminary tariffs – up to 4.78% from 0.91%. This news had caused some psychological pressure for Vietnam's shrimp exporters that growth of shrimp exports to the US would be reduced in the last quarter of the year. It was advised that Vietnam exporters should actively expand exports to other markets such as Australia and China, or tap the domestic market, to avoid dependence on the US market.

Recently, the leader of the Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development visited Australia with the purpose of promoting shrimp exports. In November, the Australian side is expected to come to Vietnam for quality checks, with the aim of opening prospects for boosting fresh shrimp exports to this market.
 

Market forecast

Shrimp import demand in some markets such as the EU, South Korea, and Japan in the last quarter of the year is expected to increase. With better results, shrimp exports for 2016 are expected to hit US$3.1 billion, an increase of 5% over the previous year.
 


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