November 24, 2004

 

 

Australian Companies Trim New Wheat Crop Forecast

 

Citing adverse weather at critical growing times, two major Australian grain companies downgraded their outlook for the new wheat crop on Wednesday.

 

Monopoly wheat exporter AWB Ltd. reduced its wheat production forecast to a range of 20 million-22 million metric tons from 21 million-24 million tons, "in light of recent seasonal conditions," it said.

 

Its wheat production last crop year ended March 31, 2004 was a record 25 million tons.

 

If AWB's latest forecast is realized, wheat available for export from the new crop should be in a range of 14 million-16 million tons, after domestic demand of about 6 million tons is met.

 

AWB exported 19.1 million tons last fiscal year ended Sept. 30, using grain sourced mainly from the last crop.

 

The harvest of winter crops, including wheat, will be mostly completed by Christmas.

 

Meanwhile, marketing, malting and logistics concern GrainCorp Ltd. also downgraded - for the third successive month - its grain intake forecast from winter crops.

 

GrainCorp, which dominates grain logistics in eastern Australia, now estimates its intake of winter grains at 10.5 million tons, down from 11.5 million tons a month ago and down from its September forecast of 13.0 million tons.

 

Graincorp's main winter crop intake is wheat, but it also receives substantial quantities of barley.

 

Crop yields in western New South Wales and Victoria states, where the harvest is beginning, "are below expectations following hotter- and drier-than-average conditions in October," GrainCorp said in a statement.

 

GrainCorp's long-term average for receivals from winter crops is 12.0 million tons.

 

GrainCorp's intake forecast, however, can't be taken as a proxy for production in the area. Other logistics providers store grain, while some grain is sent direct to end users and some is stored on farms.