November 24, 2003

 

 

Fourth Quarter US Pork Production On Track To Be Largest Ever

 

U.S. commercial pork production in October was a new record high, and based on output so far this month along with hog slaughter projections for December, some livestock market analysts foresee pork production for the fourth quarter reaching an all-time high.

 

While pork output is soaring to new highs, total red meat production for the final quarter is expected to be about 4.5% to 5.0% below a year ago due to reduced beef and veal production. Total commercial meat production in October was off nearly 5% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

 

The USDA's latest monthly livestock slaughter and meat production figures, released earlier in the day Friday, showed October pork output at 1.909 billion pounds, up about 78 million pounds from a year ago. Hog slaughter during the month was up approximately 2.5% from a year ago. Carcass weights, meanwhile, were up 3.35 pounds on average from last year. The combination of more hogs and heavier weights pushed pork output to about 4.25% above a year ago.

 

Chuck Levitt, senior livestock analyst with Alaron Trading Corp., was among the analysts who expect fourth-quarter pork production to reach an all- time high. He also said that while increased imports of hogs and pigs from Canada have contributed to larger-than-expected hog slaughters this fall, those additional supplies account for only a portion of the increase in slaughter rates. The difference, Levitt said, must be from understated March- May farrowings. Pigs born during that period go to slaughter during the fourth quarter.

 

Private analyst Bob Brown said he has already added nearly one million hogs to his slaughter projections for the fourth quarter since the September quarterly hogs and pigs report.

 

Cash hogs prices this week, based on USDA's Iowa/southern Minnesota direct hog reports, averaged about $10.00 per hundredweight dressed basis above a year ago. Market sources and analysts have credited the sharply higher wholesale beef prices for helping to support pork prices.

 

THIS WEEK'S ESTIMATED SLAUGHTERS, COMBINED MEAT PRODUCTION

 

U.S. cattle slaughter for the week was estimated at 607,000 head, compared with 601,000 a week ago and 684,000 a year ago. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is estimated at 31.598 million head, down 0.59% from a year ago.

 

Hog slaughter for the week was estimated at 2.141 million head, up 4.44% from the year-ago figure of 2.050 million. Year-to-date hog slaughter is estimated at 88.417 million head, down just 0.16% from a year ago.

 

This week's combined meat production - for beef and veal, pork and lamb/mutton - was estimated at 881.3 million pounds, versus last week's 867.8 million and the year-ago figure of 935.1 million pounds.

 

Broiler slaughter this week was estimated at 149.121 million head, compared with 157.078 million a week ago and 149.717 million a year ago.

 

 

Source: USDA