November 23, 2010

US soy forecast to achieve highest production record

Assisted by mild and dry conditions in October, US soy growers are expected to achieve a new production record this year, according to USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Soy production is forecast at a record high of 3.38 billion bushels, decreasing by 1% from the October forecast but slightly more than last year's. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 43.9 bushels/acre, declining by 0.5 bushel from last month and 0.1 bushel from last year's high record yield.

Compared with the previous month, yields are forecast lower or remained the same in all major-producing states except Delaware, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin. The biggest decreases in yield from the previous month are expected in Kansas, Nebraska, New Jersey and South Dakota, decreasing by 2 bushels each.

If realised, the forecasted yields in Illinois, Louisiana, New York and Wisconsin will be record highs and the forecasted yield in Michigan and North Dakota will be the same as the previous record high. Harvest area in the US is forecast at 76.8 million acres, similar to the last forecast but increased by 1% from 2009.

Corn production is forecast at 12.5 billion bushels, declining by 1% from the October forecast and down 4% from the previous year's record production of 13.1 billion bushels. As of November 1, yields are expected to average 154.3 bushel/acre, decreasing by 1.5 bushel in contrast to last month and 10.4 bushel less than the previous year's record of 164.7 bushels.

Forecasted yields dropped from last month throughout most of the Corn Belt, with the largest decrease forecasted in Missouri, down by 7 bushels/acre. The expected yield in South Dakota decreased 5 bushels from the previous month while the Nebraska yield dropped 4 bushels. Record-high yields are expected from California, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.