November 23, 2009

 

 

Argentina's Agriculture Ministry released its first crop forecasts since February on Friday (November 20), confirming private estimates which see record soy planting and sharp reductions in corn and wheat area.

 

The Ministry pegged Argentina's 2009-10 soy area at a record 18.5 million hectares, up 2.8 percent on the season. The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange forecasts 19 million hectares.

 

The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts soy production of 47 million tonnes, while the US Department of Agriculture expects 53 million tonnes. Some private analysts see the crop climbing as high as 55 million tonnes, if increased rainfall--which is expected to come along with the El Nino weather phenomenon--soaks the crop through the growing season.

 

As of Wednesday, farmers had planted 27 percent of the crop, the Ministry said.

 

The increased soy area is partly due to a sharp drop in corn and wheat planting.

 

Wheat production from the 2009-10 crop is seen falling to just 7 million tonnes. Planted area is down 35 percent on the year at 3.1 million hectares--the smallest area ever recorded. Dry weather in many areas, in addition to late frosts and hail storms battered the wheat crop in many areas, the Ministry said.

 

With domestic demand pegged at 6.5 million tonnes by the government, just 500,000 million tonnes of wheat are likely to be left over for export from the 2009-10 crop.

 

The Buenos Aires exchange pegs wheat production at 7.75 million tonnes, but said on Wednesday that it is likely to lower that forecast due to continued dryness and pests in the south of Buenos Aires province.

 

Meanwhile, total corn area will reach just 3 million hectares, down 12 percent on the year, the Ministry said. As of Wednesday, farmers had planted 61 percent of the crop.

 

The Buenos Aires exchange forecasts commercial corn area at 1.875 million hectares.

 

Neither the Ministry nor the Buenos Aires Exchange has estimated production yet, but the Rosario Grain Exchange sees total corn output of 13 million tonnes.

 

The government has pegged domestic consumption of corn from the 2009-10 crop at 8 million tonnes, leaving just 5 million tonnes available for export, according to the Rosario exchange estimate.

 

The Ministry forecast sunflower seed area at 1.79 million hectares, down 8.5 percent on the year. As of Wednesday, farmers had planted 51 percent of the crop, well behind the pace at this time last season, when 74 percent of the crop had been planted.

 

The Buenos Aires exchange forecasts 2009-10 sunflower seed area of 1.49 million hectares, down 33.2 percent on the season.

 

Drought in the southern and western fields has prevented planting and pushed farmers to switch to other crops.

 

Planted area is expected to be down 33.2 percent on the season.