November 21, 2012

 

 

World barley production is predicted to decline to 130.8 million tonnes from last year's 134.3 million tonnes.

 

This is according to the latest USDA report.

 

Dry weather throughout Eastern Europe and Central Asia resulted in lower production in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine which together produced 6.3 million tonnes less than 2011, offsetting larger production elsewhere.

 

Demand is forecast to outstrip supply by just under three million tonnes, although this is due to lower production rather than increased demand.

 

Demand rationing due to higher prices is likely to be in the feed sector rather than malting use. The stocks to use ratio is forecast to be the lowest since 2006-07 at 15% of demand, although absolute stocks are forecast to be the lowest in almost 30 years.

 

Strategie Grains estimates the EU malting barley crop to be 12.06 million tonnes, up by over 1.8 million tonnes from 10.15 million tonnes, in 2011-12. Total EU-27 barley production is estimated at 54.29 million tonnes, of which 10.99 million tonnes is forecast to be used for human and industrial use.

 

When biofuel use is removed, this suggests that 10.80 million tonnes will be used for human consumption, of which 10.05 million tonnes is forecast to be used in malting and animal consumption. French quality was said to be good with 3.9 million tonnes of the crop making malting and brewing grade, although with low premiums for malting use over feed, it is expected a proportion of malting barley will go for animal consumption.

 

Germany, which is usually a large importer of malting barley, produced a total 10.34 million tonnes of barley this year (8.75 million tonnes, 2011-12) and a greater proportion of this was malting quality. As a result, it is anticipated to import 0.3 million tonnes of malting barley this year, less than previous years.

 

The Canadian barley crop has seen mixed fortunes with good yields producing a large crop, but lower than average quality reducing much of that crop to feed value. RMI Analytics estimates that 3-3.5 million tonnes of Canadian barley is of malting grade. UK barley production is estimated to be 5.527 million tonnes, up by just over 0.5% from last year, according to Defra.

 

Demand is expected to be nearly 5% higher, mainly in the feed sector as barley becomes economical in feed rations due to the high price of other feed grains. Use for distilling is forecast slightly higher, continuing the long-term trend of increasing demand for Scottish whisky.

 

The challenging autumn for growers to drill winter crops may lead to increased interest in growers drilling spring barley in 2013.