November 21, 2005

  

CBOT Soy Outlook on Monday: Flat up 2 cents; e-CBOT, seasonal buying

 

 

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are seen starting Monday's session with a slightly firmer tone, following the overnight theme and seasonal buying patterns, traders said.

 

Analysts call soybeans to open steady to 2 cents per bushel higher.

 

In overnight electronic trade, January soybeans were 3/4 cent higher at US$5.70 1/2, December soymeal was US$0.20 higher at US$172.40 and December soyoil was 12 points higher at 22.13 cents per pound.

 

Seasonal trends showing prices typically edge higher before and after the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday, coupled with a strong cash basis should keep prices firm as traders position themselves in pre-holiday type trade, analysts said.

 

However, technical analysts say the door is still open for a challenge of the September low of US$5.65 1/2, or below basis January futures, with first resistance seen at US$5.75 and then at US$5.80. First support is seen at US$5.69 - Friday's low - and then at US$5.65 1/2.

 

Nevertheless, the market will need commodity fund selling to penetrate fall lows, but to this point the funds have not shown a willingness to establish an aggressive short position in the market, said a CBOT commission house broker.

 

Meanwhile, the DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast said episodes of scattered rain will help to improve conditions for Brazilian soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso during the week. Favorable conditions for developing soybeans in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul are on tap as well.

 

In Argentina, showers overnight, today and Tuesday will favor wheat and early developing corn and sunflowers, Meteorlogix added.

 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Friday in its commitments of traders report that large speculative traders held net long futures and options positions totaling 6,628 lots in soybeans 1,978 contracts in soyoil and 563 lots in soymeal as of Nov. 15.

 

On tap for Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its weekly export inspections report at 10:00 a.m. CST (1600 GMT).

 

In news, China's Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to submit an application in the near term to trade soyoil futures contracts on the exchange, an official with the bourse said Monday.

 

In overseas markets, China's Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean futures settled lower for a fifth consecutive trading day Monday, following Friday's losses in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and renewed worries over bird flu. The benchmark May 2006 soybean contract gave up RMB25 to settle at RMB2,657/tonne after hitting RMB2,648/tonne, its lowest level in more than eight months. Its intraday high was at RMB2,667/tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended slightly lower Monday on disappointing export data, though trading activity was sluggish. The benchmark February contract ended at MYR1,413 a metric tonne, down MYR5 from Friday, after moving between MYR1,408/tonne and MYR1,417/tonne.

 

Rotterdam soybeans and soymeal prices were lower, and European vegoils were flat to lower.