November 20, 2009

As the harvest of winter crops gathers pace, marketing-advisory service Profarmer Australia late Thursday (November 19) cut its production forecast for the 2009-10 wheat crop to 20.9 million tonnes from 21.9 million tonnes three weeks ago.

Poor yields were reported and frost damage has become apparent to crops through New South Wales. Lack of rainfall during grain fill for later maturing crops is also expected to impact yields, contributing to reductions in wheat estimates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, which typically accounts for 40 percent of national output, it said in a weekly newsletter.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics will review its current wheat production estimate of 22.7 million tonnes in a Crop Report scheduled for Dec. 8.

Most production estimates for the new wheat crop are in a range of 22 million to 23 million tonnes and were issued before the harvest was fully underway.

Production last crop year ended March 31, 2009, reached 21.4 million tonnes. Australia's annual domestic wheat demand is between 6 million and 7 million tonnes, leaving the balance available for export into what is an already well-supplied global market.

Profarmer also estimated 2009-10 barley output at 7.0 million tonnes compared with Abare's 7.9 million tonnes and actual output of 6.8 million tonnes last crop year, while Profarmer projects canola output in 2009-10 at 1.67 million tonnes, down from a forecast of 1.8 million tonnes issued Tuesday by the Australian Oilseeds Federation.