November 20, 2007

 

US crop progress wrap: corn harvest ending;wheat ratings down
 

 

The US corn harvest is near completion, the US Department of Agriculture said Monday afternoon in its weekly crop progress report.

 

Winter wheat emergence continues to lag behind its average pace, with dryness in the southern winter wheat belt continuing to pressure crop ratings lower, analysts said.

 

CORN

 

The USDA said 97 percent of the corn crop was harvested as of Nov. 18, up from 93 percent last year and the five-year average of 94 percent.

 

The corn harvest pace is near completion, in line with market expectations, said Mario Balletto, analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

 

In Iowa, 97 percent of the crop was harvested, just above last year's 96 percent and the five-year average of 96 percent. In South Dakota, 94 percent of the crop was harvested, below last year's 96 percent but above the five-year average of 92 percent.

 

In Illinois, 100 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 97 percent in 2006 and the five-year average of 98 percent. In Indiana, 98 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 84 percent last year and the five-year average of 93 percent.

 

The corn harvest should wrap on a timely basis, analysts said. No major disruptions to the remaining harvest are seen, according to the DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast.

 

Winter Wheat

 

The USDA said 45 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition as of Nov. 18, down 4 percentage points from last week and down from last year's 57 percent good-to-excellent rating. Nineteen percent of the crop is rated in poor-to-very poor condition, and 36 percent of the crop is rated in fair condition.

 

The 4-percentage-point drop in ratings was above the 2 to 3 percentage point drop the trade was anticipating, said Brian Hoops, president Midwest Market Solutions in Yanktonne, S.D.

 

Dryness in the southern Plains continues to pressure winter wheat crop ratings, but it's hard to determine what effect these ratings and dryness will have on eventual yields at this time, Balletto said.

 

DTN Meteorlogix said dryness continues to stress wheat growth through the western half of the southern Plains winter wheat belt. There is little chance for significant rainfall in this area this week. Meanwhile, colder weather arrives later this week, slowing the growth of the wheat crop, Meteorlogix added.

 

In Kansas, 40 percent of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, 38 percent of Oklahoma's crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition and Texas' wheat crop is rated 16 percent good-to-excellent. Illinois and Ohio's winter wheat crops were rated 62 percent and 87 percent good-to-excellent, respectively.

 

There is no correlation between fall crop ratings and yield potential in the spring, but with tight global supplies, any crop issue will serve as an underpinning feature for the market, Hoops added.

 

The USDA reported that 85 percent of the winter wheat crop has emerged, below the 90 percent in 2006 and the average of 90 percent.

 

In Kansas, 91 percent of the crop has emerged, compared to the average of 95 percent. In Texas, 65 percent of the crop has emerged, down from last year's 84 percent and below the average of 81 percent. In Oklahoma, 79 percent of the crop has emerged, compared to the average of 93 percent.