November 19, 2010

Active fungi pose great risk on Lebanon's wheat production

The wheat production of Lebanon is at risk from virulent strains of fungi that threaten to devastate production, increase food insecurity and raise prices, warned a UN report.

An unusually mild winter 2009–2010 already resulted in a "serious" outbreak in the country of the mutated, and especially potent, adaptation of "rust fungi" but experts are fearful that knock-on effects of global warming will only further intensify the country's susceptibility in the coming years.

The disease has the capacity to destroy some 50% of wheat stock and is presently being blamed for the loss some one million hectares in Syria. If serious steps are not taken to monitor the spread of rust fungi and take measures to diversify wheat crops, the situation could spread across the region, said the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Food Outlook report, released Wednesday (Nov 17).

This, combined with other global supply-and-demand factors, threatens to raise food prices further in 2011 and could raise the global food-import bill in excess of US$1 trillion.

This level has not seen since the devastating 2008 food-price crisis, where the price of wheat rose by 136% in two years, causing widespread political, economic and social insecurity, including violent food riots in Egypt where the price of bread doubled in just a few months. 

Economic pressures are presently hitting food prices in Lebanon, where the price of certain vegetables and meat have skyrocketed in recent months.

According to Agriculture Ministry figures, the price of meat and vegetables, have soared to near-record highs in recent months, with the price of certain goods, such a tomatoes, rising by 100% and 400% on some varieties.

Agriculture Minister Hussein Hajj Hassan has predicted an easing of the situation by mid-November but the ILO report stresses that countries will remain vulnerable to further shocks if significant step are not made to increase cereal, and especially, corn and wheat production.

"For major cereals, production must expand substantially to meet utilisation and to reconstitute world reserves. Against this backdrop, consumers may have little choice but to pay higher prices for their food," ILO said.

Meat prices, however, that are linked to cereal prices and have been high of late, are expected to rise only slightly in the next couple of months, slightly offsetting the rise in other commodities like fish, the report said.

Hajj Hassan said that price hikes have been aided by external factors, namely global droughts that brought on a surge in international meat prices in September, but gave assurances that prices should range between LL12,000 (US$7.99) and LL15,000 (US$9.99), and not the LL15,000 (US$9.99) to LL24,000 (US$15.99)price bracket that they have risen to in recent weeks.

Two weeks ago, spurred on by the Agriculture Ministry, the economy minister drafted a law that would restrict traders' profit margins to 20%. Moreover, the ministry has set up a hotline at the number 1739 where consumers may report excessive prices.