US turkey output down 9.7 percent on-year in Q3

 

 

US produced 1.42 billion pounds of turkey during the third quarter of 2009, down 9.7 percent from a year ago, according to the USDA.

 

The decline was due to a 10.1-percent drop in slaughter count, though the average liveweight of turkeys at slaughter increased slightly to 28.4 pounds.

 

Turkey production in the fourth quarter is projected at 1.48 billion pounds, down 6.7 percent on-year. With poult placements continuing to be lower than the previous year, turkey meat production estimate for 2010 was lowered by 100 million pounds to 5.73 billion. This is still slightly higher than in 2009, with the increase expected to come in the second half of the year.

 

Stocks of turkey products have been gradually moving closer to their 2008 levels due to lower turkey meat production in 2009. By the end of September, overall turkey cold-storage holdings were 615 million pounds, down one percent on-year.

 

However, cold-storage holdings of whole turkeys at the end of September were reported at 362 million pounds, still up eight percent from a year earlier. The decline in turkey cold-storage holdings was due to lower stocks of turkey parts. At 253 million pounds, stocks of turkey parts at the end of September were down 12 percent from the previous year.

 

Prices for whole turkeys at the wholesale level averaged only 81 cents per pound in the third quarter and were down 16 percent compared with a year earlier, even with sharply lower third-quarter production and gradually decreasing levels of whole bird stocks. Whole-turkey prices are expected to average 81 to 83 cents per pound in the fourth quarter, down about five cents per pound from the year-ago period.

 

With slightly higher production expected in 2010, wholesale whole bird prices are expected to average 77cents to 83 cents per pound.

 

Turkey exports totalled 49 million pounds in September 2009, down 23 percent from the previous year.

 

Turkey exports have been lower to almost all major markets, with a 26-percent decline of shipments to Mexico having the largest impact on the market.

 

However, exports seem to be trending upward with shipments in the third quarter  totalling 152 million pounds, much higher than in either the first or second quarters of 2009.